Premier League Winner
With Champions Manchester United the current favourites to retain the title at 2.75 [13 Sept: 2.25, 25 Nov 3.0] and Chelsea close behind at 3.5 [13 Sept: 6.0, 25 Nov 20.0], it’s worth a look outside the main two contenders for value. Man City are the third favourites at 4.5 [13 Sept: 3.0], but are they ready to win over the whole season? There’s certainly no argument that they’re now seated in the top tier of English football but there’s little value at the current price, so look out for drifting odds. [25Nov: Man City are five points clear at the top and now have odds of just 1.73 to win the Premier League]
Arsenal are still licking their wounds from last season’s disappointments and with the potential loss of key players it’s not a good time to make a judgement on them [25 Nov odds fallen but stabilised at 35]. Liverpool on the other hand show signs of value at 11.0 in the betting markets [13 Sept: 27, 25 Nov 50], with a reformed team and a manager that can build momentum and morale. The odds could certainly fall from that level, giving a chance to lay off the bet. Alternatively, back Liverpool each way, with most bookies offering 2 places at 1/3 odds, or the ‘Win without the big 2’ market.
(30 July 2011)
Bet: Liverpool to win without Chelsea and Man Utd: 5.0 at William Hill. Low/ Medium Stakes.
Bet: Liverpool win @ 11.5 Betfair, to trade out of/ hedge. Low stakes.
Premier League Relegation
As per usual, the three promoted teams are the three favourites for the drop. Considering that you’ll typically see a ‘honeymoon’ period for at least one of these teams, it’s a better move to wait until better odds are on offer. Blackburn and Newcastle are worth keeping an eye on in this market, currently at odds of 4.5 and 7.0 respectively [13 Sept:2.25 & 9.0, 25 Nov 1.91 & 67]. Newcastle have stormed the Premier League in the first third of the season, and might fade but are surely safe.
Premier League Top Goalscorer
Early contenders Tevez and Rooney have drifted and now Robin van Persie (RVP) is the leading contender [25 Nov 3.0] and City's Aguero close behind [25 Nov 4.3]. Ronney and Dzeko are close behind them.
Bet: Look for value in Adebayor each-way @ 40 with Victor Chandler , also Suarez @ 23 from Bet365 - both top 3 places [25Nov]
Updates to this post will follow throughout the season.
La Liga Primera Winner
The big two of Barcelona and Real Madrid seem pretty invincible in 2010/11, leaving a 21 point gap to third place Valencia. Valencia, Villarreal, Sevilla, Athletic and Atlético make up the next group of teams. Valencia are probably best positioned to take advantage of any slip ups and claim the top spot, and they are at a surprisingly high odds of 50.0 plus [25 Nov 151]. Granted, this would require both Barca and Real to come unstuck, so this is a speculative punt. Similarly, have a look at Villarreal as a real outside chance for appropriately high odds [13 Sept: Any team except Barca, Real: 67 with Victor Chandler, 25 Nov 81].
Bet: Any team except Barca, Real: @67 with Victor Chandler
La Liga Primera Relegation
Newly promoted Granada are favourites to face the drop at 1.62, but their Udinese-influenced squad could come up with a few surprises so this is a bet worth avoiding. Generally struggling Mallorca and Levante could be worth a look at 4.5 and 3.75 respectively [25 Nov 4.5 and 26]. Levante have been 'doing a Newcastle' in the Spanish league and sit fourth after 12 matches.
(30 July 2011)
Bet: Levante relegated @ 3.75 with William Hill, medium stakes.
Bet: Mallorca relegated @ 4.5
La Liga Primera Top Goalscorer
Last season’s top two, Messi and Ronaldo are the favourites, both available at around 3.0. Again it might be worthwhile waiting for the season to get going and examining how teams are set up before placing any bets. Benzema seems to be on form in pre-season so keep him on the watchlist. Rossi of Villarreal has consistently been a high scorer, and is worth a low stakes punt at the currently available 19.0 from Paddy Power, each way
(7 August 2011)
Bet: Rossi @ 19.0 E/w (quarter odds on top 4 places) with Paddy Power