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Premier League 2010/11 GameWeek 3 28-Aug-10. Results

TeamA

TeamB

Bet

Weight

Odds

Outcome

Net

Comments

Blackburn

Arsenal

No Bet

 

 

 

 

There is no value in the Arsenal win or -0.25 bet for this game, considering it should be a reasonably tough test at Ewood Park. Arsenal should edge the match.

Blackpool

Fulham

Blackpool+0.25

3

1.92

Win Half

1.38

Blackpool's first home game in the division should have fantastic support. This carried them through last year and whilst the EPL is a different world it should be taken into account that Fulham's away record is pretty poor.

Chelsea

Stoke

Chelsea-2.25

4

1.74

Lose Half

-2

This game gives the biggest Bethawk index difference between the two teams so far this season. Stoke might be difficult to break down, but less so away, and Chelsea are on the best form. However the odds reflect this (and more), reducing any value on offer.

Tottenham

Wigan

Spurs -1.5

5

1.73

Lose

-5

This game looks also like being very one-sided, with Wigan on the ropes and Spurs on a high having qualified for the UEFA Champions League. Despite Spurs mid-week game this has the potential of being a goal-fest - has the Spurs under-performance of old been finally banished?

Wolves

Newcastle

Wolves 0

3

1.7

Level

0

Despite the 6-0 win last week, Newcastle should be strongly tested away from home. The game should be close but with the advantage going to Wolves.

ManUtd

WestHam

ManUtd -2

5

1.73

Win

3.65

Another asymmetrical match this week - Man Utd are not on the best form relative to recent years, but they still have the potential of recording a convincing victory against a lacklustre West Ham.

Bolton

Birmingham

Bolton -0.25

5

1.83

Lose Half

-2.5

Bolton are on decent form and should be able to absorb Birmingham, who have so far showed less form than last season.

Liverpool

WestBrom

No Bet

 

 

 

 

Liverpool should win, but they've played a big game midweek and have been through a rocky time - and the odds available don't reflect that

Sunderland

ManCity

Sunderland+0.75

3

1.75

Win

2.25

This is bet based on the value given by Sunderland's home record and Man City having played a big match midweek. Low weighting only, as Man City could yet become the super-team that they aspire to be.

AstonVilla

Everton

Everton 0

2

2

Lose

-2

Two teams on the back foot, but with the home side in deeper trouble. Everton's woes are relatively light and their team should get the advantage on, or at least contain, Villa.

     

30

   

-4.22

-14.1%

Post-Match Commentary

The damage to this week's net result rests on the Spurs result - they suffered due the mid week focus on the Champions League game and Wigan also showed that they can potentially turn their season around. Most games went broadly according to plan & the two 'no bet' games were both won by a single goal by the odds-on favourites, so were best left alone.

Blackburnshowed fighting spirit and Arsenal found them difficult to break down. With 3 points from this game Arsenal are proving to be on a good streak of form, boding well for the near future. Blackburn didn't disgrace themselves and will more than likely keep Ewood Park a tough place to visit this season. Blackpool also have a considerable home advantage, as proven by the support shown against Fulham. Fulham don't travel particularly well and they can't have automatically assumed they'd win; a draw was probably a fair result to both sides.

Chelseahad to work hard to break down Stoke, but took the 3 points without conceding a goal. As mentioned pre-match, the value wasn't available as many expected anther 6-0 thrashing, so in retrospect the weight on the bet could have been too high, or been a candidate for a 'no bet'. Stoke showed they're looking to become established Premier League players.  Wolves had to contend with a buoyant Newcastle at Molineux. The 'old-fashioned' game suffered from a lot of fouls and the draw was a fair reflection of the skills and effort of the teams on the day. Newcastle are enjoying a 'honeymoon' period back in the EPL; it will be interesting to see if this can be sustained into the autumn and winter.
Man Utd had a comfortable afternoon hosting West Ham - three-nil would have been a widely predicted result. Man Utd didn't have to break into a sweat on many occasions and whilst the visitors didn't look terrible they never posed a real threat.
Bolton continued a decent run of form by salvaging a point from this game despite being 0-2 down and reduced to 10 men. This can virtually be seen as a win, and as a real missed opportunity for Birmingham. Liverpool managed to break down a well organised West Brom and will be relieved to see Torres on the score sheet. The visitors have shown that they have the potential to avoid relegation this year if they can keep the momentum and work rate up. Sunderland were fortunate to get all 3 points but did perform well, combined with underperformance by Manchester City. City didn't work well as a team and looked disjointed, particularly after Tevez's miss. Sunderland continue their strong home form at the Stadium of Light, which will be a difficult place to visit for all. Villa were also lucky to beat Everton; the Merseyside team probably had the upper hand and should've claimed a point. Villa do have quality, which showed in Albrighton again, and Everton have failed to take their chances.


 

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7

1.10.10

Wigan

Wolves

Wigan-0.25

4

2.02

Win

4.08

Wigan have been hot and cold this season, but improved from their poor opening matches. The two differing styles of play will battle for supremacy and that could work in Wigan's favour as Wolves tend to pick up cards. The game could be tight but favour Wigan.

7

1.10.10

Birmingham

Everton

Birmingham+0.25

3.5

1.85

Lose

-3.5

This match looks like being low scoring. Given that Birmingham haven't lost at home for a year, a positive handicap for the home team at the displayed odds is a bonus. Everton have the edge on paper but playing at St. Andrews this match should be all square or tilt towards the home side. Low weight because of Birmingham's unconvincing start to the season.

7

1.10.10

Stoke

Blackburn

Stoke 0

5

1.6

Win

3

Stoke are a solid unit, slightly weakened by the absence of Fuller, but still equal to the visitors. Blackburn have had an OK start to this season and will be up for a physical match.

7

1.10.10

Sunderland

Man Utd

Sunderland +1

4

1.6

Win

2.4

A large handicap here for the home side at decent odds. Whilst United have been showing signs of hitting top form, they have just played away in Europe and have a squad with injuries. Sunderland are currently on a roll and will provide ManUtd with a tough game.

7

1.10.10

Tottenham

AstonVilla

Tottenham

3.5

1.9

Win

3.15

Spurs are continuing to confirm that they are a part of the top 6. Were it not for the fact that they played midweek, this bet would've been 6 or more points on the home win. Villa are settling under Houlier and have a good squad, however this would be a test in any circumstances.

7

1.10.10

WestBrom

Bolton

WestBrom-0.25

3

1.83

Lose Half

-1.5

WestBrom have impressed so far and the match could become a decent game with Bolton also playing attractive football. The factors in this game cancel each other out, with the home advantage and momentum of last week's win at Arsenal being enough to balance Bolton's superior side.

7

1.10.10

WestHam

Fulham

WestHam-0.25

4

2.08

Lose Half

-2

Fulham's lack of attack means they could be hoping for just a point at the Boleyn. The Hammers have sprung back and will fancy this London derby - the home support could be the deciding factor if enough momentum can be built. Low-ish weighting as the jury is still out.

7

2.10.10

Man City

Newcastle

ManCity-1

7

1.78

Level

0

Man City might have palyed midweek but their momentum and quality will be too much for the visitors. Newcastle have been inconsistent, but would require an amazinf performance to get any points from this match.

7

2.10.10

Liverpool

Blackpool

Liverpool-1.5

2

2

Lose

-2

Liverpool have stumbled a few times this season and will take more time to crystalise into a dependable squad. Blackpool are capable of an upset but the most likely outcome is a more perdictable scoreline in favour of the hosts

7

2.10.10

Chelsea

Arsenal

Chelsea

5

1.75

Win

3.75

Chelsea and Arsenal are both on form, recording wins in their Champions League matches and sitting at/ near the top in the league. Arsenal have some defensive issues which will further disadvantage them. The big match (and derby) feel will level the teams slghtly, meaning that Arsenal could take advantage of decisions and opportunities going their way, but all indicators point to this being a home win.

 

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