Bethawk tips are all fully researched and analysed. You can ‘outsource’ your own research activity to Bethawk by subscribing, but a punter should always have some idea of the state of the markets, odds and teams in question. Bethawk covers all of the factors mentioned below for every match.
Factors to Research
This covers team news, rumours and gossip on individual players, even relevant financial news. Interpretation of news events can vary wildly and an apparently negative story could act as a turning point for a team and they might emerge stronger than imagined. Breaking news stories can alter the betting scenario for a game right up until the start of the match (frequently the team line-ups an hour before kick off will contain some surprise omission or reintroduction in a squad which will significantly affect the match odds). Keep some swift and reliable news sources to hand – some examples are on this page.
Home bias and morale
The degree to which a stadium becomes a ‘fortress’ depends on one thing: the supporters. The atmosphere created by fervent support can really motivate the home side and demoralise the visitors – over the season this contributes a considerable number of points for certain teams. This is often an overlooked factor and can play a significant role in a match – how will they react when going a goal behind, or is there someone around to make the side not lose their concentration half way in to an easy game? Morale is difficult to translate in numbers but it does have a major bearing on the game result.
There are numerous sites containing football data but beware everyone using the same data to come to the same conclusion. Sorting through the valuable and the irrelevant data can take time. Having the right information to hand and then performing analysis to find correlations and trends takes time, but can really pay off.
Connecting these stats to your own betting success is a sensible step. Your chosen team might have dominated a match but not won the bet -stats such as a high possession % and number of corners or shots could show that your team was actually a reasonable choice, but the bet just didn’t work on that day. Alternatively, digging deeper into the stats could show you were very lucky to win a bet with a team that somehow beat the odds.
The weight of history
The previous results between the two teams in a match do have a bearing on the current outcome, particularly those meetings which had a large number of the current squad playing. Rivalries come into play as well and scores often need to be settled. Make sure you know all about these influences on a game before placing a bet.
Quality and Form
The recent results of a side might give you an indication of form but a team on a poor run of form can still have massive underlying potential, or quality. Consistent good form can actually increase the quality of a team – the opposite is perhaps true as well. Additionally, it’s not just the result itself that counts, it’s the performance. For example, underdogs visiting the league leaders could still put in a strong performance and lose the game: the result will just say they returned zero points but a more qualitative approach will give them more credit than that.
Watching players and their body language will enable a true judgement of team spirit. This can’t be judged from numbers as it is a very subtle indicator – key signals could be one player failing to congratulate another, lack of effort when the game is still there to win, choice of words in the post-match interviews. Psychology is all important in a game that’s played with human emotions ideally kept in check. The manager of course should be the main controller of the team’s mental condition, but are they themselves capable of performing such a task, under pressure for week after week? The game needs to be watched as objectively as possible for all of the above aspects – the game might become less straight-forward ‘fun’ but if you’re into football betting then it’s valuable research.
All of these background factors are taken into account within a bookie’s odds of a team winning – you should make your own impression of the right odds for the match so you’re able to spot a value bet when it appears.